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Good morning!

MBS prices are up +5/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.0 at 100.08), which is about 8/32 higher than Friday at this time. The 30-yr fixed FNMA required net yield (60 day) is now at 4.46%, from 4.51% on Friday.

Treasury yields rose on Friday as stocks rose, brushing off the "news" of the bank stress tests. The information released by the Fed provided limited additional details of the methodology of the tests. While the individual banks were briefed on their results, those details will not be made public until at least May 4. Some banks are expected to require additional capital, either private or from the government. Most banks are expected to pass the stress tests. While the economic scenarios driving the tests seemed appropriately severe in February when first released, the deterioration in the economy since then has undermined them. Friday's focus also included the automakers with increasing expectations of bankruptcy by both GM and Chrysler. Since then, however, progress on Chrysler's union contracts has upped the odds that it will be able to restructure and sell to Fiat without going through bankruptcy. GM will scrap the Pontiac brand as part of its restructuring. Over the weekend and this morning, attention has focused on the swine flu spread which has rekindled SARS and pandemic concerns. While Mexico seems to be the center of attention, the assessment that the illness is spread human-to-human and the widespread reported cases, even though they are few in number, are raising governmental concerns and efforts. Markets are taking note with declines in world stocks being attributed to the scares. A flight-to-quality this morning is boosting Treasury bonds along with the dollar. Last week, the taxable muni market exploded with issuance of Build America bonds. Strong follow-through is expected this week. This week's economic calendar is fairly heavy and back-loaded.

There are no Economic Indicators are scheduled for release today.

Treasuries Rise as Federal Reserve Begins Purchase of Debt. Yields on 10-year notes rose the most in almost two weeks as the central bank listed 20 securities for possible purchase between 10:15 a.m. and 11 a.m. New York time. Investors speculated banks may need additional infusions of cash after the government completes its so-called stress tests of balance sheet strength. “The buybacks are the thing this week and there are no auctions this week”

Obama Sees `Glimmers of Hope' for Economy After Meeting Bernanke, Geithner President Barack Obama said he’s “starting to see progress” toward a recovering economy even as it is “still under severe stress.”

Bernanke Bet on Keynes Has Meltzer Siding With Friedman on Inflation Risks Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is siding with John Maynard Keynes against Milton Friedman by flooding the financial system with money.

Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results Regulators are using the tests to determine whether the 19 biggest banks have enough capital to cover loan losses during the next two years if the economy shrinks, unemployment surges and housing prices keep declining. The tests are a linchpin of the plan announced in February to bolster confidence in the nation’s banks and restore financial-market stability. Geithner has likened the stress tests to those used by doctors to evaluate a patient’s health. They’re designed to mesh with the administration’s effort to remove distressed mortgage assets from banks’ balance sheets. The Fed is overseeing the administration of the tests, people briefed on the matter say.

Delinquency Rate Rises on FHA-Backed Loans. Nearly 10.2% of borrowers who took out FHA-backed loans in the first quarter of 2008 had missed at least two consecutive monthly payments within the first 10 months. That was up from 2007, when 9.4% of FHA-based borrowers missed payments within the first 10 months. Loans that are 60-days delinquent aren't necessarily headed to foreclosure, and the FHA has robust loss-mitigation programs. FHA officials say nearly 10% of those 60-day delinquencies end up in foreclosure, compared with a 27% rate for private-sector loans. But the rising default rate nonetheless illustrates the challenges that face the agency as it becomes one of the last backers of mortgages with low down payments.

Reverse Mortgage: Get Cash, But Use Caution  Reverse mortgages are booming as the number of federally insured reverse mortgages hit 112,015 in 2008, up from 43,082 in 2005. While it makes sense to suspend withdrawals from beaten-down retirement accounts, taking out a reverse mortgage is an expensive way to achieve this, warns an elder-law specialist.