Good Morning!
The Fed is making it clear that they think Mortgage Rates to consumers are too high relative to Treasures. The last time we had rates (Treasuries & MBS) this low was back in 2003-2004, when the 10Yr Treasury bottomed out (in Yield) at 3.11 on 6/13/03, and the Fannie Mae 30y 30 day commitment (FNCR3030 on Bloomberg) bottomed out @ 4.66 for a spread of 1.55. Currently this spread is 2.53, which is 98BP wider then it was in 2003. Many things have changed over the last few years, with the current economic and housing situation looking worse then they did in 2003. The potential impact on mortgage rates could be tremendous.
Are you ready for mortgage rates to fall ??
(Data and commentary provided courtesy of Rob Branthover @ MIAC)
US Treasury and Fannie Mae Commitment Spreads
6/13/2003
10/31/2008
11/24/2008
10Yr Treasury
3.11
3.95
3.19
FNCR3030
4.66
6.30
5.72
Spread
1.55
2.35
2.53
6/03 to 11/08
0.98
Fed Commits $800 Billion More to Unfreeze Lending (Update2)
2008-11-25 14:36:32.850 GMT
(Adds Fannie-Freddie bond trading and investor and trader
comments from seventh paragraph.)
By Scott Lanman and Dawn Kopecki
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve took two new
steps to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small
businesses, committing up to $800 billion.
The central bank will purchase as much as $600 billion in
debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing-finance
companies. It will also set up a $200 billion program to support
consumer and small-business loans, the Fed said in statements
today in Washington.
With today’s announcement, the central bank is starting to
use some of the unorthodox policy tools that Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke outlined as a Fed governor six years ago. Policy makers
are aiming to prevent a financial collapse and stamp out the
threat of deflation.
“They’re trying to put funds into the system, trying to
unfreeze these markets,” said William Poole, the former St.
Louis Fed president, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large
amount of credit risk.”
The Fed will purchase up to $100 billion in direct debt of
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks and up to
$500 billion of mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie,
Freddie and Ginnie Mae, the statement said.
Help for Housing
“This action is being taken to reduce the cost and increase
the availability of credit for the purchase of houses, which in
turn should support housing markets and foster improved
conditions in financial markets more generally,” the Fed said.
Fannie and Freddie bonds rallied. The yield premium on
Fannie Mae’s five-year debt over similar-maturity Treasuries
tumbled 21.5 basis points to 114.7 basis points as of 8:35 a.m.
in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A basis
point is 0.01 percentage point.
“The cheaper that they could issue their debt, the more
aggressively they should be able to buy mortgages in the
secondary market,” said Alan Bosworth, director of agency
trading at Vining Sparks in Memphis, Tennessee.
Separately, under the new Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility, the Fed will lend up to $200 billion on a non-recourse
basis to holders of AAA rated asset-backed securities backed by
“newly and recently originated” loans, such as for education,
automobiles, credit cards and loans guaranteed by the Small
Business Administration, the Fed said.
Commercial Paper
The ABS program is similar to the Fed’s effort to bring down
the cost of financing for commercial paper, the short-term debt
companies issue to finance payrolls and other expenses, because
it goes beyond banks.
“What the Fed has been trying to do is get a sense of what
works and what doesn’t work,” said Derrick Wulf, who helps
manage $70 billion in mostly fixed-income assets at Dwight Asset
Management Co. in Burlington, Vermont. “One of the things that
has worked is the commercial paper facility.”
Wulf added that “it can certainly improve credit conditions
for consumers.”
The Treasury will provide $20 billion of “credit
protection” to the Fed in the lending program, using funds from
the $700 billion financial-rescue package. The Treasury said in a
statement that the facility may expand over time and cover other
assets, such as commercial and private residential mortgage-
backed debt.
‘Continued Disruption’
On the ABS facility, the Fed is trying to avoid having
“continued disruption of these markets” that would limit
lending and “thereby contribute to further weakening of U.S.
economic activity,” the central bank said.
Under the new lending program, known as the TALF, the New
York Fed will auction a fixed amount of loans each month for a
one-year term. Assets will be held in a special-purpose vehicle
to be created by the Fed. The program will stop making new loans
on Dec. 31, 2009, unless the Fed Board of Governors extends it.
Lenders providing credit under the TALF “must have agreed
to comply with, or already be subject to,” executive-
compensation restrictions in the October bailout law, the
statement said.
The Fed will start buying the direct debt of government-
sponsored enterprises -- Fannie, Freddie and a dozen federal home
loan banks -- through primary dealers in government debt from
next week. The purchases of mortgage-backed securities will be
done through asset managers, and officials aim to begin the
effort by year-end.
Purchases of both types of debt “are expected to take place
over several quarters,” the Fed said.
Thank you.
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