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Mortgage Rates Remain Victim of Volatility. More on Appraisal Issues...
August 6th, 2009 2:22 PM

Weaker than expected economic data on the services sector of our economy lead to a brief rally in mortgage backed securities yesterday.  However, as the day progressed however, ever-resilient stocks rallied off their morning lows leading MBS to close at their lowest levels since early July.  A few lenders issued rate sheets while MBS were moving higher in the morning but once sentiment shifted, they quickly repriced for the worse.   To remind readers, mortgage rates are set primarily by the trading of mortgage backed securities.  As investor demand for MBS increases, the price of MBS moves higher which results in mortgage rates moving lower.   Generally, the demand for MBS is higher during weak economic times as market participants move their money into the safety of the fixed income sector which includes MBS and U.S. Treasuries. 

Tomorrow brings us the Employment Situation Report, one of the most important scheduled releases each month.  Less meaningful, but still important to market movements is the Jobless Claims report that comes out every Thursday, which totals the number of Americans that filed for first time unemployment benefits in the prior week.  It also provides continuing claims which measures repeat filings.  Recent reports show declining claims, which supports the current recovery mentality. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that first time claims fell 38,000 from a revised 588,000(was 584,000) to 550,000 providing more evidence of improving conditions on the jobs front and beating estimates of 575,000.  The continuing claims figure rose from a revised 6.241million to 6.31 million which was still better than expected by most economists. 

On a sad note, our nation’s 12th largest mortgage lender and 3rd largest FHA lender shut their doors yesterday READ STORY. If your loan is submitted to Taylor Bean or has recently closed but not funded, you need to resubmit it to a new lender.  In their announcement they stated that no loans, even loans that already closed but still in the rescission period will not be funded.   This is a huge blow to the mortgage industry, especially brokers, as it further decreases the choices and flexibilities. 

Another concern regarding the closing of Taylor Bean is with the appraisals that were performed.  Under the HVCC guidelines, you are supposed to be able to transfer appraisals from one lender to another, seems simple but most lenders have conditions.   The appraisal must have been ordered through an Appraisal Management Company that is recognized by the new lender.  If that lender does not utilize that particular AMC you cannot transfer the appraisal and will now have to pay for a new one.   Also, the appraisal must be transferred directly from Taylor Bean to the new lender.   With the closing of Taylor Bean it is unlikely that they will continue to employ someone to do this task.  In addition, even if they do have someone available for this task, there will be thousands of loans to go through which will make the process very difficult and time consuming.   One major lender has announced that they will not take a transferred appraisal  under any circumstance but they will lower their underwriting fee by the cost of the new appraisal.   This will require that the consumer pay for a new appraisal up front.  This illustrates one of the many bad aspects of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct.    According to Congress who passed this law, appraisals are supposed to be portable from one lender to the next but that is not the case and hopefully Taylor Beans demise will draw attention to this matter.

Early reports from fellow mortgage professionals are indicating that mortgage rates continue to rise with the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage being in the 5.25% to 5.50% range for the best qualified consumers.  In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee.   If your credit score is lower than 740, you can still secure a par interest rate but you will be required to pay additional fees due to the Loan Level Price Adjustment fees that were added by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier this year.

 


Posted by Brad Turpin on August 6th, 2009 2:22 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Drop in homeownership likely to continue
August 6th, 2009 1:54 PM
Drop in homeownership likely to continue
Updated 5h 6m ago | Comments 488  | Recommend 45 E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions | Subscribe to stories like this
The rate of homeownership is forecast to keep tumbling in the next decade to lows not seen since the 1980s, a trend that could redefine a key element of the American dream even after the housing market recovers.

The percentage of households that own homes hit a peak of almost 70% in 2004 and 2005. By the second quarter of this year, that slipped to 67.4%, according to the Census Bureau. Now, a University of Utah analysis projects it'll drop to about 63.5% by 2020 — the lowest since 1985.

"It will fall steadily by about half a point per year," says Arthur C. Nelson, director of the university's Metropolitan Research Center. "We'll have far more renters in the future."

Homeownership has long been viewed a key to building stable communities and middle-class families. Federal policy encouraged it with tax credits and government-backed mortgages. Now, demographic changes, strict mortgage rules, energy-saving policies and lessons learned in this housing crisis are driving more people to rent.

About 57% of the 30.3 million housing units added from 2005 to 2020 will be rentals, Nelson says.

"So many of our federal and state and local policies are driven by the assumption that homeownership is inherently preferred over renting," he says.

The housing collapse may have an impact.

"We're returning more to what was normal in the 1960s," says Dowell Myers, housing demographer at the University of Southern California. "People didn't buy homes then as an investment. They bought them to raise families."

Renting also may be more appealing because:

• Households are smaller. The youngest of 79 million Baby Boomers will turn 56 by 2020 and many will be empty nesters who favor small homes. The 20-something millennial generation is at a peak age for renting.

"What we used to think of as the typical American family — married couple with children — is really not typical anymore," says Mark Obrinsky, chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council in Washington, D.C.

It's tougher to buy. The subprime mortgage crisis is tightening credit availability.

Some arenew to the USA. Most recent immigrants rent.

Somewant to save energy. From tax credits to mass transit, going green is reshaping growth.

Homeownership is not inherently good or bad, Obrinsky says. "Let's give people the best set of housing choices. They want to be a renter, let them be a renter. If they want to be an owner and they can afford to be, let them be an owner."


Posted by Brad Turpin on August 6th, 2009 1:54 PMPost a Comment (0)

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